This paper examines EU strategic import dependencies using product-level trade data for 2017-2021, identifying goods and raw materials relevant for the digital, green, and health ecosystems. Building on European Commission monitoring methods, we combine six import dependency and supply vulnerability indicators and identify potential criticalities within ecosystem relevance product lists. The screen identifies 45 candidate critical products. Digital goods dominate their import value, while lower-value intermediate inputs may create bottlenecks with wider consequences for production. We explain how unreliable access to these goods can constrain capacity utilisation, technology adoption, innovation and productive capabilities. Econometric analysis investigates the correlation of critical imports with aggregate exports across the ecosystems. This work develops an extended data-driven methodology and provides evidence-based insights into the trade-offs between openness and resilience. The paper helps inform the design of innovation and industrial policies aligned with strategic autonomy goals.
Authors Filippo Bontadini, Cecilia Jona-Lasinio, Enrico Marvasi, Giuseppe Nicoletti