The Greater Manchester growth model is under the spotlight – nationally as a new Prime Minister looks set to take office – but also within the city region itself with the mayoral byelection on 30th July.
It has been widely claimed that Greater Manchester is the fastest growing part of the UK – though some dispute why it is growing and others dispute whether the data is accurate enough to make this claim at all.
We are kicking off a short project looking to address three simple questions: Is Greater Manchester growing significantly? If so, why? And then, what lessons might be sensibly transferred and/or scaled up from it?
This is the first of two TPI policy insights papers that seeks to answer these questions and to offer policy recommendations where they could be relevant to the new government’s agenda.
On the question of whether it is growing, we must be clear on which definitions of growth we are looking at. We think that looking at a range of indicators on output (GVA), productivity (GVA per hour worked), earnings and other relevant data is important because it gives a holistic picture and helps to overcome errors or biases in any one data set. Our project will understand why this data is contested and look to draw conclusions.
On the question of why Greater Manchester is growing, claims have been made about leadership and specifically the role of leaders including Andy Burnham, Howard Bernstein and Richard Leese. Some have pointed at foreign direct investment, the role of universities, transport, housing or the developments such as those at the Airport, MediaCityUK or the Oxford Road Corridor. Our project will test each of these theories in the light of the data and also the evidence collected from TPI interviews with leading figures in Greater Manchester and beyond.
This first paper will focus on the debate around whether Greater Manchester is growing. In particular, we are concentrating on the period 2015 to 2023 both for data reasons but also because it aligns with the signing of the first devolution deal in 2014 and covers the first and most of the second term of Andy Burnham as its elected mayor. It will also set out some of the most important questions about the contribution of Greater Manchester’s institutions and governance to this growth. The second paper in September will explore the policy lessons and their transferability more fully.
Authors Joe Peck, JP Spencer, Andy Westwood